Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election
Opinion polls in New Zealand
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The general election took place on 14 October 2023.[1]
Party vote
Graph of opinion polls conducted (as at 10 October 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%.
Opinion polls grouped by main blocs (as at 10 October 2023)
Nationwide polling
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (TPM), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), New Conservative (NCP), and New Zealand Loyal (NZL). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.
The Port Waikato electorate vote is cancelled after ACT candidate Neil Christensen dies; a replacement by-election will be held on 25 November 2023.[2]
Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table and graph, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls.
Graph of preferred prime minister opinion polls (as at 10 October 2023). Only includes people who polled at least 3% in three separate polls. Smoothing is set to span 45%.
Judith Collins is removed as National Party leader in a vote of no confidence.
10–17 Nov 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
2.5
11.9
—
41.7
6.1
29.8
6–10 Nov 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
–
4
11
1
39
5
28
1–8 Nov 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
4.1
10.5
1.5
34
6.3
23.5
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021
Talbot Mills
1,023
2
15
—
47
10
32
3–11 Oct 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
2.3
12.3
1.3
47.2
5.2
34.9
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021
Talbot Mills
1,200+
–
16
—
51
9
35
22–26 Sep 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,001
0.1
3
11
0.7
44
5
33
5–9 Sep 2021
Taxpayers' Union–Curia
1,000
3.3
9.3
1.5
50.8
4.4
41.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021
Talbot Mills
1,050
1.3
14
—
55
13
41
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021
Talbot Mills
1,216
2.1
14
—
50
11
36
22–29 Jul 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
–
8.6
—
45.5
8.2
36.9
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021
Talbot Mills
1,199
–
12
—
55
10
43
22–26 May 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,002
–
3
6
1
48
9
39
7–13 May 2021
Newshub–Reid Research
1,000
2.4
—
—
48.1
5.6
42.5
9–13 Mar 2021
1 News–Kantar Public
1,006
–
2
4
0.7
43
8
35
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020
1 News–Kantar Public
1,004
0.3
2
4
1
58
12
46
Government approval rating
The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.
Graph of government approval rating polls (as at 31 August 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%.
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[23]
On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice".[24] In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election.[25] Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi.[26] On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori.[27] On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner.[28]
^ abcdThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
^ abcdefghPrivate poll
References
^"'I no longer have enough in the tank': Jacinda Ardern resigns as New Zealand Prime Minister". ABC News. 19 January 2023. Archived from the original on 19 January 2023. Retrieved 19 January 2023.
^"ACT Party Port Waikato candidate Neil Christensen dies". Radio NZ News. Retrieved 10 October 2023.
^ abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxy"2020 General Election – Official Results and Statistics". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 21 January 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
^"National's Muralidhar nipping at Swarbrick's heels in Auckland central electorate poll". Radio New Zealand. 26 September 2023. Archived from the original on 26 September 2023. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
^"Poll shows Chlöe Swarbrick in fight to hold Auckland Central". Newstalk ZB. 27 September 2023.
^"Auckland Central Electorate Debate 2023 - Taxpayers' Union The Working Group". YouTube. New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
^"Christchurch's Ilam electorate swings back to National, according to latest poll". Radio New Zealand. 29 August 2023. Archived from the original on 29 August 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2023.
^ ab"NEW POLL: National Leads In Napier Electorate". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 23 August 2023. Archived from the original on 23 August 2023. Retrieved 23 August 2023.
^ ab"Napier Poll - November 2022" (PDF). Curia. 9 November 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 March 2023. Retrieved 4 September 2023.
^September 12; Media, 2023 Nztu. "NEW POLL: National Lead in Northland Electorate". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 7 October 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
^ abManhire, Toby (3 October 2023). "Simon O'Connor vs Brooke van Velden will go to wire in Tāmaki – new poll". The Spinoff.
^ ab"Matthew Hooton: Van Velden on track to make it two seats for Act in Auckland". NZ Herald. 21 July 2023. Archived from the original on 20 July 2023. Retrieved 20 July 2023.
^"Tauranga – Official Result". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 17 September 2023.
^"Tauranga by-election: On the campaign trail and behind the scenes with National, ACT and Labour". Newshub. Archived from the original on 25 June 2022. Retrieved 21 June 2022.
^ ab"Tirikatene tightens grip on Te Tai Tonga". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
^"Newshub Nation Reid Research Poll: Labour's Ibrahim Omer, Greens' Tamatha Paul, National's Scott Sheeran neck and neck in Wellington Central". Newshub. Retrieved 17 September 2023.
^ ab"Election's youngest candidate has Labour stronghold under siege". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
^ ab"Will voters punish Meka Whaitiri for waka jumping?". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
^ ab"Older voters back Henare and Labour; younger favour Kemp and Te Pāti Māori". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 11 October 2023.
^ ab"Neck and neck race for Te Tai Hauāuru". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
^ ab"KORO BEATS WINNING THE ELECTION FOR KELVIN DAVIS | Media Release | Whakaata Māori". www.whakaatamaori.co.nz. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
^ ab"Poll: Rawiri Waititi takes clear lead to hold Waiariki". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
^Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
^Swift, Molly. "NZ First leader Winston Peters rules out coalition with Labour". Newshub. No. 19 November 2022. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
^Franke-Bowell, Jonah; McConnell, Glenn (13 April 2023). "'Highly unlikely' Christopher Luxon will partner with Te Pāti Māori or 'socialist' Greens". Stuff. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
^McConnell, Glenn (11 January 2023). "Te Pāti Māori plans for a big 2023, but happy to stay cross bench". Stuff. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
^McConnell, Glenn (10 May 2023). "National's Christopher Luxon officially rules out working with Māori Party". Stuff. Retrieved 10 May 2023.
^"'Instability and chaos' - Labour rules out a partnership with NZ First". RNZ. 27 August 2023. Retrieved 27 August 2023.
^"2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
^Desmarais, Felix (11 October 2023). "Poll: Labour lifts and Greens strong, Peters has decision to make". 1 News.
^Lynch, Jenna (11 October 2023). "Newshub-Reid Research poll: National right to panic as support plummets, New Zealand First surges". Newshub.
^Graham-McLay, Charlotte (10 October 2023). "Guardian Essential New Zealand poll: Labour picks up steam days out from election". The Guardian.
^"New Zealand set for a new Prime Minister and a three-party governing coalition: National, ACT & NZ First". Roy Morgan. 13 October 2023.
^"Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 6 October 2023.
^Trevett, Claire (5 October 2023). "Election 2023: Last pre-election Talbot Mills shows NZ First rising and in the box seat, National and Greens rising, Act and Labour dropping". New Zealand Herald.
^Vance, Andrea (7 September 2023). "Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort". The Post.